Where the dice fall

The Germany of early 1918 was an unsettled place. Everyone knew someone who'd been killed in the last four years of war. Their enemies were blockading their ports, so food and other goods were in short supply. There were strikes, and mutinies.

But the military situation was actually quite good. Russia had fallen apart in revolution, and the German army of the eastern front was suddenly available for the west. Their army chiefs decided on one last roll of the dice - a huge offensive, to win the war before home disaffection and the intervention of the Americans lost it.



And it started well. They managed to drive a wedge between the British and French armies, they took prisoners, gained ground. But then their enemies' defence in depth kicked in, and the armies of the east were cut apart in futile attacks. The Allies regathered, and their next attack pushed the Germans back.

The defeat was decisive on the home front. It makes no logical sense, obviously. If you've just realised you have problems that military success won't solve then no amount of it should make you feel better, but military failure will damn sure make you feel worse. The strikes spread, there were bigger mutinies in the Navy and at the front, the Kaiser abdicated and the provisional government reached a humiliating agreement for an Armistice.

A century later, and the Brazilian nation face a similar dilemma. They went in to this thing with high hopes based on false promises, and now they're realising how deeply they've been let down. They were told there'd be a cash bonanza from tourists and TV companies, but by the time Blatter, Colonel Sanders and the higher echelons of the Brazilian civil service had stuck their snouts in the trough there wasn't a whole lot left. Now they're picking up the tab for it, and they aren't happy. Half of them are on strike, and the rest are actively mutinying.

But it could all be OK, if Brazil do well. If they don't, there's gonna be trouble. So the pressure on the players and manager going into the first game must have been immense. Just think, you've got all the expectations of the people, without any of the normal salsa-driven enthusiasm. If you play for the Brazilian national team at a World Cup you wouldn't normally expect to have to buy your own beer ever again. This lot must be considering fake IDs and facial surgery.

So how did they do in their first game? Well, imagine if a man with a whistle had marched up to the British machine guns, ruled them out of order and insisted that the Germans get a free shot at Paris. Then the German people threw rocks at Adrian Chiles anyway.

Yes, all that means Brazil won, so they crossed the first trenchline out of seven just about intact. They aren't out of the Belleau woods yet though. Even if they get past Mexico and Cameroon, they've still got a round of 16 game against (probably) Spain or Holland, and the last three games won't get any easier. I wouldn't be booking into the Paris Ritz just yet. Or something. You get the idea. Metaphors are a bit like proton packs, powerful if correctly handled but you mustn't cross the beams.